🔗 Share this article

Just two days before the New York mayoral election, Michael Lange issued a bold electoral prediction – not just who would win citywide, and block by block. Lange, a political analyst who grew up in the city, has spent more than ten years in progressive politics and emerged as a kind of local celebrity this year for his deep dives into municipal statistics and polling.

He released his highly detailed forecast map – which correctly forecast that the progressive candidate would win although failed to predict Andrew Cuomo’s solid showing – on his newsletter, the Narrative War. Lange possesses a talent for witty coinages. He highlighted, as an example, the split between the “commie corridor”, running from Park Slope to another area to Astoria, where he forecasted (correctly) that the left-wing candidate would win by huge margins, and the “capitalist corridor” on affluent parts of Manhattan. There, “the Free Press and financial newspapers surpass the New York Times” in readership and most voters favored Cuomo, campaigning as a moderate alternative.

Election Night Trends and Unexpected Results

How was your election night?

I had to do that since they were dropping around 200,000 ballots into the tally frequently! I felt a little nervous at the beginning: Mamdani led the early vote by a dozen percentage points, but came large groups of ballots added after that and his lead went from 12 to 8%. It was concerning.

Understand, there was a world where yesterday went somewhat badly for Mamdani, where the opponent was going to end up essentially doubling his votes from the earlier contest. However Mamdani gained half a million supporters to his initial base, and this was critical why he succeeded. He campaigned and massively expanded his base from the primary.

Expanding Support

How did the mayor-elect gain those extra votes from?

He built the alliance that the left long aimed for: it’s multiracial, youthful, it’s renters and individuals squeezed by affordability. He improved significantly with minority communities, working- and middle-class voters, relative to the earlier election. Additionally he boosted his base of liberal progressives, young leftists, and Muslims and south Asians. Victory required without making those significant inroads.

He built the alliance that progressives long aimed for: multiracial, young, renters and residents struggling with costs

There were also a number of Trump/Mamdani voters – is this significant?

It’s definitely a real thing, confined to Hispanic laborers, Asian communities and Muslims. Electors in immigrant strongholds that went for the former president previously went for the progressive now. However I wouldn’t say he was gaining white working-class voters and Maga voters.

Turnout and Effects

A major development of the election was the record participation. Who did that help?

Each candidate. Participation was significantly higher than I had expected. I figured we might exceed two million, but it’s closer to 2.3 million – which is a lot of darn voters. There was a substantial anti-Mamdani block, who were motivated, but the Mamdani base was also motivated, and that sufficed to secure victory.

You predicted he’d exceed half the ballots. Is he on course for that?

Right now it appears he’s favored to get over 50%. He’s at just over 50% but remain around 200K ballots uncounted as of Wednesday morning. So I don’t think certain, but I believe it’s likely, and I hope he does so then no one can say Sliwa was a disruptor.

Republican Collapse

The GOP candidate, the Republican candidate, is the other big story. His support completely collapsed.

He didn’t win any district in any borough. Including Tottenville in the borough, similar to an highly conservative area. That really was unexpected. Cuomo held very white areas, very wealthy areas and devout communities, and plus gained all of these Republicans on Staten Island who had a strong turnout. I believe occurred significant tactical voting by GOP voters. They were doing it before the former president endorsed for Cuomo, but it assisted. It might have changed the outcome if Mamdani’s coalition hadn’t grown.

Progressive Strongholds

Regarding your often-discussed “commie corridor” – was support for Mamdani dominant in those areas of Brooklyn and Queens?

I think existed some weakening of the commie corridor in some areas like neighborhoods that have more older white ethnic folks. There, instance, the Greek landlords and residents supported the independent. So there existed some opposition. However overall, largely the commie corridor is another huge reason why Mamdani prevailed – he was polling between high percentages in specific neighborhoods.

Jewish Voters

Prior to the vote there was coverage on if Mamdani was making inroads with the community. Is there any suggestion that he succeeded?

There are areas with many secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – such as Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he performed strongly. But in the wealthy Jewish communities like the Manhattan area, his position on Israel was influential there. Likewise in the more middle-class Jewish areas including Queens neighborhoods, or Bronx areas – they favored Cuomo. And also, there are Jewish immigrants from the former Soviet Union in southern Brooklyn, they were pretty staunchly Cuomo. So I don’t know if existed major surprises here, but he did hold left-leaning areas and including sections of the another locale with large leads.

Long-Term Significance

Did Mamdani redefine what New York means politically? Will progressive base serve as a springboard for leftwing candidates?

Yes, it’s not accidental that key political leaders from the left hail from a handful of neighborhoods in the boroughs. I believe that we’ll see more of that – candidates will emerge from these areas to be elevated nationally.

However I think that every city in America could develop similar progressive hubs. Urban places are the epicenters of progressive influence in the nation – since they’re young, tenancy is common and they represent locales where people are crushed by the inequalities we face.