🔗 Share this article

Voting has commenced for parliamentary elections in Holland, with current polling data indicating that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their emerge victorious, although experts believe PVV is unlikely of joining the next government.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

The PVV, which previously achieved a shock first-place finish and formed a multi-party all-conservative coalition that lasted barely a year, is now slightly leading in the polls and is forecast to secure between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-seat house of representatives.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's support has dipped since the previous election, when it won 37 seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out forming a government with Wilders, who triggered the fall of the previous government in the summer amid disagreements concerning his radical anti-refugee proposals.

Key Contenders and Projections

Following a election period dominated by topics such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the country's acute housing shortage, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, projected to win between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, predicted to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is anticipated to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the Freedom Party, VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with some facing heavy declines.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just 0.67% of the vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Of the 27 parties participating in the vote – which include senior-focused parties, for youth, for animals, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – as many as 16 could enter parliament.

This significant fragmentation ensures that no single party is ever likely to win a majority, and Holland has been governed by coalitions – typically composed of four parties in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the PVV ends up as the largest party yet is shut out of government. But, opponents and experts argue that first place does not assure a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a majority is a democratic outcome.

While the election result is hard to predict and government negotiations could take months, analysts suggest that after the most extreme government in recent memory, the future government is expected to be a inclusive coalition led by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, including those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, opened at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate exit poll is expected soon after the polls close.

After the vote, an official negotiator will test potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in the legislature. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must face a confidence vote in parliament before assuming power.